Set pieces
The most important finding: for indirect free kicks what counts is the difference between ISP Att and ISP Def, not the ratio.
IFK: the difference is what counts
Conversion depends on ISP Att − opponent's ISP Def, measured in Hat points (1 rating point = 4 Hat points). It is an exception in the ME, where a³/(a³+b³) usually applies.
Proof: with a −6 difference conversion is about 21% both with 5.5 vs 7.0 and with 11.5 vs 13.0. With the cubic formula it would range from 30% to 42%.
IFK conversion curve by difference
With very negative differences more than 90% of missed IFKs are not shown in match reports. That is why the CHPP curve is too high.
How to calculate the difference: sublevels
Every Hattrick level (inadequate, passable, solid, excellent…) has 4 sublevels, and each sublevel is worth 1 point of difference. A whole level is therefore worth 4 points.
| Sublevel | very low | low | high | very high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decimal | .00 | .25 | .50 | .75 |
Difference = (ISP Att − opponent's ISP Def) × 4 = sublevels between the two values.
- 5.00 inadequate – very low vs 7.75 solid – very high → −11 → about 12%
- 7.75 vs 7.75 (same value) → 0 → about 45%
- 8.00 excellent – very low vs 7.75 → +1 → about 53%
- 10.50 outstanding – high vs 7.25 solid – low → +13 → about 83%
In practice: if your ISP Att has the same level name as the opponent's ISP Def you are around 35–55%. Each whole level less takes away 4 points.
Free kicks by ISP Att alone (average against all defences)
Note: this table only looks at your ISP Att, averaged against whatever defence was faced. It ignores the opponent's ISP Def. To estimate an IFK in a specific match use the difference (curve above or calculator). The DFK and PK columns are direct free kicks and penalties, not indirect ones.
Free kicks come according to possession, like the other chances: about 0.63 per match (IFK 0.21, DFK 0.29, PK 0.12). Conversion grows a lot with ISP Att.
DFK or PK? And the "counter-attack DFK"
- DFK + PK = a fixed 8.4% of normal chances. Only the split between the two changes.
- The penalty share ranges from about 20% to 50%. It rises with ISP Att and falls with the opponent's ISP Def: with ISP Att 7.00 it is 40% against defences below 8 and 24% against 13.5.
- The set pieces taker's set pieces skill also matters: SP <10 → 24%, 19+ → 34%.
| Type | Events | Goals | Conv. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal DFK | 342,854 | 52,201 | 15% |
| Counter-attack DFK | 40,176 | 11,597 | 29% |
| Normal PK | 151,315 | 78,612 | 52% |
29% is close to the 26% combined DFK+PK conversion. Most likely the ME treats DFK and PK as a single "direct set piece" and only chooses how to show it in the match report.
Where ISP and set pieces come from
- Averages are over the outfield players. That is why long shot teams (high scoring) have high ISP.
- Direct free kick: only the taker's set pieces and experience count. Indirect: set pieces, experience, form and stamina.
- If the taker leaves the pitch, the second on the penalty takers list takes over, not the substitute. When training set pieces, the keeper and the taker get 25% more (up to 1 extra level).
Penalty shoot-out (after extra time)
- For the keeper only goalkeeping counts, without form or stamina.
- Technical players get a bonus; experience weighs much more than in penalties during the match.
- Historical formula (HO): experience × 1.5 + set pieces × 0.7 + scoring × 0.3, +10% if technical. A French study considers it imprecise.
- IanMajor's alternative formula: experience enters as XP4/(XP4+54), i.e. it matters a lot up to 5 and then saturates; the shot combines scoring (weight 0.72) and set pieces (0.28, +18% if technical) against goalkeeping, with exponent 3.5 and a maximum of 92%.