Specialties
Special events are a series of "battles" between players with the same specialty in the sectors that trigger them. Whoever wins the battle takes almost all the events: that is why it pays to focus on 1–2 specialties per sector.
The engine's rules as Hattrick's staff explained them, gathered and summarised by LA-Alpa in the Unwritten Manual. The figures here are the declared ones; those measured on real matches are in part 2.
How a special event happens, in 4 phases
- Which event. Each event has a starting probability and the total is always 100% (if it does not add up, the match does not start). Impossible events, e.g. quick events when nobody has quick players, hand their share to the others. The more specialists you have, the higher the probability of their event. There is also a "null" event: sometimes nothing happens.
- Which team. For specialty events the number of specialists counts. For corners, experienced forward and inexperienced defender the midfield counts. Play creatively only helps the team playing it in this phase.
- Which player. A slot is picked at random among the valid positions (e.g. 8 slots for the Rush): each specialist you add raises the probability, without lowering it even if he is weaker than the others. If a receiver is needed and there is none, the event is cancelled.
- Goal or not. Skills are compared (table below). Effective skills count: form, stamina, experience, weather, loyalty.
- At most 6 special events per match, +1 for each team playing Play creatively.
- The same event can repeat, but each time it is harder: 4% to get it twice, less than 0.1% three times. Negative events decline faster.
- Changing an event's conversion only affects that specialty. Changing its frequency affects them all: if one event grows, another must shrink.
What each specialty is worth according to HT (2020)
Net expected goals (positive minus negative events) over thousands of real matches, after the 2020 fix of unpredictable events. It is a total per specialty, not per player. The PNF alone is worth about 0.19–0.20; Head = Corner–Head + Wing–Head − Technical–Head conceded.
- The Corner and Wing "Anyone" events are deliberately stronger than the specialties: HT wanted players without a specialty to have value and no risks.
- After 2020: Corner–Head from 0.20 to 0.23, Wing–Head from 0.10 to 0.15. Unpredictable own goal from −0.25 to −0.11, mistake from −0.07 to −0.05.
How it works: the X vs Y battle
- Who can trigger the event. Each event is triggered only by certain positions: the attacking sector (forwards, wingers, inner midfielders) or the defensive one (wing backs, central defenders, sometimes the keeper).
- How many events. Decided by the team with more specialists (X): base frequency × X × discount. The discount exists because an event, once it has happened, becomes less likely: 2 → 0.967; 3 → 0.942; 4 → 0.925; 5 → 0.906; 6 → 0.888.
- Who gets them. They are split with X3.5 / (X3.5 + Y3.5), the same exponent logic as possession.
- Whether they become goals. It depends on the skills of the players involved, e.g. the quick player's passing against the opposing defence, then the receiver's scoring against the keeper.
Example, Quick Pass 3 vs 2: 8.2% × 3 × 0.942 = 23.0% events in the match, split 81/19 → 18.5% for you and 4.5% for the opponent.
How many events you get (X vs Y)
| Scenario | Share of events |
|---|---|
| 2 vs 1 | 92% |
| 3 vs 1 | 98% |
| 3 vs 2 | 79–81% |
| 4 vs 3 | 73% |
| 5 vs 4 | ~67–69% |
| 3 quick vs 3 unpredictable (different battles) | 50% |
| 6 quick vs 2 quick + 2 unpred. + 2 head | 59% |
| 7 quick vs 3 quick | 95% |
Whoever loses a battle gets almost no events: with 1 quick player vs 2 you get 8% of the quick events. It is better to win the main battle by a wide margin than to fight many with a single specialist each.
Which skills decide the goal
First column: who creates the event against who opposes it. Second: who shoots against the keeper. "Same side" = wing back and central defender on the opposite side (e.g. right winger against left wing back and left central defender).
| Event | Creation: attacker against defender | Finishing |
|---|---|---|
| Quick – Rush | SC vs DF (always stopped by an opposing quick player on his side) | SC vs GK |
| Quick – Pass | PS vs average DF, same side | Receiver's SC vs GK |
| Technical – Head | SC + XP vs DF + XP | SC vs GK |
| Technical defender | PS vs (inner midfielders' DF) / 3 → counter-attack | – |
| Unpred. – Long pass | PS vs (inner midfielders' DF) / 3 | Receiver's SC vs GK |
| Unpred. – Scores | – | SC vs GK |
| Unpred. – Special action | PS + XP vs DF + XP, same side | Receiver's SC vs GK |
| Unpred. – Mistake ⚠ | Unpredictable player's DF + XP vs opponent's SC + XP | Your GK vs opponent's SC |
| Unpred. – Own goal ⚠ | Your forward's PS vs your keeper's GK | – |
| PNF | PM vs sum of central defenders' DF | SC vs GK |
| PDIM | DF + ST vs ball carrier's SC + ST | – |
| Wing – Anyone / Head | WI vs average DF, same side | Receiver's SC vs GK |
| Corner – Anyone | ISP att. + taker's SP vs ISP def. | Receiver's SC vs GK |
| Corner – Head | ISP att. + taker's SP vs ISP def.; no. of headers vs headers | No. of headers counts, not SC |
| Experienced forward | XP vs opponents' average XP | SC vs GK |
| Inexperienced / tired defender ⚠ | XP (or ST) + DF vs opponents' average XP (or ST) + SC | Your GK vs opponent's SC |
HT's numerical examples, in short
| Situation | Stated example | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| PNF: triggers | 1 / 2 / 3 PNF, after a missed chance | 10% / 16% / 20% |
| PNF: beats the defence | PM 10 vs central defenders' DF 30 | ~38% |
| PNF: beats the defence | PM 15 vs 30 (or 7 vs 14) | ~63% |
| PNF: scores | SC 12 vs GK 15 · SC 14 vs GK 16 | ~75% · ~80% |
| PNF: total | PM 7, SC 14 vs 1 central defender DF 14, GK 16 | ~5% |
| PNF: one more defender | Same case, 2 central defenders DF 14 | ~1.9% |
| PDIM: triggers | 1 / 2 / 3 PDIM | 10% / 16% / 20% |
| PDIM: blocks | DF 13 vs SC 17, similar ST | ~41% |
| Technical defender | Extra counter-attack, 1 / 5 technical defenders | ~1.7% / ~3% |
| Failed unpredictable | Failed "Scores" or "Special action" → opp. counter-attack | 4% |
| Unpredictable own goal | PS vs GK: 8–15 · 10–10 · 10–20 · 15–15 · 17–10 | 20% · 27% · 13% · 14% · 16% |
| Own goal: real odds | Decent player, counting how rare the event is | < 0.5% |
| Experienced forward | XP 10 vs average 8, SC 13 vs GK 15 (XP 15) | 33% (38%) |
| Weather | Quick, technical, powerful (keepers too); one more quick player in the rain | −5% skills · ~−1.5% wins |
| Too many identical players | 2 / 3 powerful players with the same event (PNF, PDIM) | −4% / −7.5% skills |
For technical vs header, conversion by position (a user's study, January 2019): forward vs defender 42%, vs inner midfielder 46%; winger 29% / 31%; inner midfielder 24% / 29%.
What actually happens: nickarana's statistical studies of Live matches.
The events: base frequency, who triggers them, conversion
Base frequency = probability per match with 1 specialist vs 0. Typical conversion is against a 6.5–7.5 star keeper, team without the LS tactic. The column shows where the specialist plays.
| Event | Base freq. | Triggered by | Typical conv. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quick – Rush | 8.7% | Offensive block | 34–37% |
| Quick – Pass | 8.2% | Offensive block | 39–41% |
| Corner – Head | 5.0%* | All except GK and SP taker | 59–62% |
| Wing – Head | 5.1% | Offensive block (needs WG) | ~59% (true) |
| Unpredictable – Long pass | 7.0% | Defensive block + GK | 43–44% |
| Unpredictable – Special action | 3.0% | All except GK | ~38% |
| Unpredictable – Scores | 4.1% | Offensive block | 55–60% |
| Unpredictable – Mistake ⚠ | 2.4% | Defensive block + IM | negative |
| Unpredictable – Own goal ⚠ | 4.3% | FW + WG | negative |
| Technical – Head | 9.5%** | Offensive block | 27–28% |
| Corner – Anyone | 10.0% | Possession (linear) | 47–50% |
| Wing – Anyone | 8.0% | No. of WG (X vs Y) | 31–34% |
* Corner–Head does not follow X vs Y: 5% at 50% possession, multiplied by linear possession and by the number of headers (e.g. 60% possession and 2 headers → 5% × 1.2 × 2.25 = 13.5%). ** Technical–Head only happens if the opponent has at least one header outside the attack. Conversions are in 17464575.318.
What each specialty yields (net goals per match)
Extra net goals going from 0 to 3 specialists in the sector (U midfield and Q defence: from 0 to 2). Above 400 HatStats everything yields less: opponents have more specialists and better keepers.
One specialty or many? One.
Teams with 4–7 attacking specialists: those with at least 4 of the same Q or H specialty score about +0.10 goals per match compared with those who mix. Each extra specialty in the mix makes it worse: M2 › M3 › M4.
Rule: concentrate 1–2 specialties per sector, e.g. all headers or quick + headers. That way you never lose a battle.
Event conversion by opposing keeper
Teams playing long shots convert better, because they have more scoring: +28 points on corners and +26 on the Rush. They convert worse on wing and passing events. Conversion grows with the LS tactic level: from 29% at level 2 to 60% at level 25.
How much special events weigh
- A typical team has 2–3 players who can trigger events. Each specialist adds about +0.06 events and +0.03 goals per match: from 0.13 goals with 0 specialists to 0.40 with 10 or more.
- Out of about 2.25 goals per match from normal attacks, the edge is worth about 56% wins for the team with more special events.
- Special events decline during the match more than normal ones: they are 117% of the normal frequency at kick-off and 80% at the end.
For each specialty: the figures from the studies and, below, the engine's rules.
Quick
attack and defence- Very high frequency, low conversion: on average it is the specialty that brings the most goals.
- It is countered by quick defenders, especially wing backs: a quick wing back cancels the winger and forward on his side. In defence on their own they are worth little, but they become useful at high level, when the opponent has many quick players.
- For conversion scoring matters: quick forwards and inner midfielders who score well are the best choice.
- Weather: in the rain there is about −4% on midfield and attack. On average it costs about −0.16 xG per match.
- Real U21: only 0.026 goals per 90 minutes, because opponents almost always have quick players.
Engine rules
- Quick: only quick wing backs and central defenders stop a quick event; a quick keeper does not stop the Rush. A quick defender also cancels the counter-attack bonus given by opposing quick players. In the Rush wingers get a scoring bonus. A quick keeper reduces opposing counter-attacks and saves penalties slightly better.
Who can stop a quick event
The quick player is stopped by the defender in front of him (solid line, 100%) and sometimes by those next to him (dashed, 25%). Sides are mirrored: his right attacks your left.
| Opposing quick | Stopped 100% | Stopped 25% |
|---|---|---|
| L WG/FW | R WB | R CD |
| L IM | R CD | C CD · R WB |
| C FW/IM | C CD | L CD · R CD |
| R IM | L CD | C CD · L WB |
| R WG/FW | L WB | L CD |
Head
attack and defence- High frequency and very high conversion: the second specialty for goals.
- Corner–Head: the split is linear (3 vs 1 → 75% vs 25%) and depends on possession, so it yields little if you play a lot of counter-attacks. Conversion depends on attacking headers vs defending headers: 1 vs 0 → 64%, 3 vs 3 → 38%, 5 vs 5 → 36%.
- Wing–Head: X vs Y on attacking headers. If the only header is the winger, events are halved; from 2 headers up it does not matter. More headers bring more events from the wings overall. The number of wingers and possession do not matter.
- In defence it is the second for goals and defends corners.
- Unlike quick players it does not compete for quick events: pair it with a few quick players or quick wing backs.
Engine rules
- Head: for Corner–Head possession decides the team, the number of headers the goal probability. With a single header, if he is the winger crossing, the event is skipped. Higher card risk after a corner. A header keeper defends corners, but concedes Technical–Head events.
Unpredictable
best in defence- In defence it is by far the specialty that brings the most goals. It yields even more with good passing and with wingers and forwards who score well.
- In attack: low frequency and high conversion, third for goals. The negative events (own goal 4.3%, mistake 2.4%) reduce its value.
- Advantage: he is hard to man mark, useful as an inner midfielder at high level.
- Negative events convert less and less as the level rises: 43% below 200 HatStats, 14% above 400.
Engine rules
- Unpredictable: counts double for the Play creatively level. An unpredictable keeper can make the long pass, with a small risk of giving away a counter-attack. He is harder to man mark (+8%).
Technical
to avoid- Low frequency and conversion: the last specialty for goals. Technical–Head is the most frequent event, but only if the opponent has a header outside the attack.
- He is a target for man marking.
- Advantage without an event: the technical defensive forward helps the wing attacks.
- Technical in defence: the technical counter-attack is rare, about 2% per match, and yields less and less after the first one. In a counter-attacking team it adds about +0.6% counter-attacks.
Engine rules
- Technical: easier to man mark (−8%). Technical–Head does not depend on how many headers the opponent has (one is enough, in defence or midfield). Counter-attack order: non-tactical first, then those from technical defenders, then tactical ones. A technical defensive forward strengthens the wing attacks.
Powerful
PNF, PDIM, markerHe does not take part in specialty battles (these are not special events), but in goals per match he yields more than any other specialty. He is a "luxury" player who pays off in specific situations.
| PNF: powerful forward | 0 opp. CD | 1 CD | 2 CD | 3 CD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of your missed chances | 9.5% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.6% |
| Expected goals per match | 0.18 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.08 |
- PNF: triggers after a missed normal chance, free kicks included, but not after a long shot. It converts at about 80%; conversion reaches its maximum early, so there is no need to train playmaking on purpose.
- It depends on the opposing central defenders and on how many chances you miss. It yields less with pressing (0.08 events) or counter-attacks (0.06), more with LS (0.18) or other tactics (0.14).
- Man marking on him: conversion drops from 80% to 40%. After a yellow card his cards drop by 2/3, but PNF events do not. After an event the frequency does not drop.
- U21: 0.125 goals per 90 minutes, against 0.035 for the header and 0.026 for the quick player. By far the best choice.
- PDIM (powerful defensive inner midfielder): stops 6.5% of the opponent's normal chances with 1 player, 9.7% with 2 and 13.1% with 3. It depends a lot on defending (from 2.2% to 7.7% by stars). Very effective with counter-attacks.
- Remember (ch. 12): the ME checks the counter-attack first, then the PNF.
Engine rules
- Powerful: the PNF is outside the special event process. It also applies after missed free kicks and penalties, but not after counter-attacks or long shots. It does not depend on Play creatively and does not decline after an event. He must play with a normal order. With a yellow card he becomes more careful: fewer cards, same events. The PDIM works like pressing, also together with the tactic. A powerful marker gets +10% (no specialty +5%). A powerful keeper counts double for pressing.
Support and Resilient
minor specialties- The support event is very rare: the all-time record is 22 events in a career, about 1 per season. Success grows with experience and skill; if it fails there is a 15% chance of a drop in organisation.
- The resilient specialty has too little impact to matter.
- nickarana's verdict: better avoid them.
Engine rules
- Support: gives a total +20%, split among nearby team-mates, on all skills except set pieces, for the whole match. It succeeds if his main skill and experience exceed the opponents' averages. If it fails, there is a 15% chance of losing 10% of organisation.
Events without a specialty
- Corner–Anyone (10%): split by linear possession (60% possession → 60/40). It converts according to the ISP difference, with a flatter curve than IFKs: −12 → 45%, 0 → 56%, +12 → 62%, +24 → 68%. Then it is multiplied by a keeper factor: 5 stars ×1.20; 8 stars ×1.00; 10 stars ×0.92; 13 stars ×0.83. LS teams convert much more (about 74%).
- Wing–Anyone (8%): X vs Y battle on the number of wingers; 2 wingers vs 1 → 91% of events. Playing with 2 wingers is perhaps the simplest way to win a battle. Possession does not matter. It converts at about 45%, and winger skill matters a lot: with a 6-star edge it reaches 81%.
- Experienced forward: frequency up to about 1.3–1.4% per forward with experience 10 or more. It converts at about 37%, regardless of experience (scoring vs keeper).
- Inexperienced defender (conv. 10–17%) and tired defender: rare and random.
Engine rules
- Experience and stamina: only forwards have the experienced player event. Only central defenders can have the "tired defender" event, and only in the second half.
Play creatively (PC): doubles the events
- It increases events for both teams, almost equally. Corners grow separately (×1.58 at level 7, then stable around ×1.95 from level 15) and their split does not change.
- It does change the split of events in favour of the team playing PC:
- When equal (X = Y): (X+1)/(X+Y+1) → 1 vs 1 = 67%, 2 vs 2 = 60%, 3 vs 3 = 57%.
- If you have more specialists: exponent 4 instead of 3.5.
- If you have fewer: exponent 2.5. For example, 2 vs 1 drops from 92% to 85% for the opponent.
- Pressing does not reduce special events.
- nickarana's team plays PC with quick attackers, plus PNF and unpredictable defenders. In 39 matches: 45% possession, open-play goals 62–70, but special events 22–9, set pieces 4–2, powerful events 4–5. Result: 17 wins, 8 draws, 14 losses.
Play creatively and man marking
- The PC level depends on passing (weight 4) and experience (weight 1); unpredictable players count double, the keeper does not count.
- PC acts in 3 ways: it raises the maximum number of events (+1, or +2 if both teams play it), makes an event more likely and helps the team playing it to get it (about +60% at level 15). It does not affect non-tactical counter-attacks and long shots.
- It can backfire if the opponent has more specialists: they get more events too.
- Man marking: only inner midfielders and defenders can mark (powerful ones with +10%, no specialty +5%). Only inner midfielders, wingers and forwards can be marked.
Calculator: X vs Y battle
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Frequency = base × max(X,Y) × discount; split X3.5/(X3.5+Y3.5). With PC: events ×2 for both; split (X+1)/(X+Y+1) when equal, exponent 4 if you have more, 2.5 if you have fewer. It does not consider quick defenders, who stop about 17% of quick events, nor Corner–Head, which follows possession.
Calculator: what your PNF yields
Trigger rate 10/16/20% as stated by HT. The other two curves are estimates made for this manual: formulas that reproduce HT-Tasos' examples (playmaking 10 vs 30 → 38%, 15 vs 30 → 63%, scoring 12 vs 15 → 75%, 14 vs 16 → 80%, and the full case 5% → 1.9% with one more central defender), i.e. playmaking2.5 vs (0.4 × defending)2.5 and scoring3.2 vs goalkeeping3.2. Use "clean" skills: form, stamina and experience move them. Compared with nickarana's real data: about 0.13–0.16 goals per match with 1 PNF against 1 central defender.