Tactics
Counter-attacks, long shots, attack in the middle and on wings, pressing: how much they yield and what their limits are.
Counter-attacks: trigger rate by level
Rate = counter-attacks / normal chances missed by the opponent. The maximum is about 45%.
Counter-attacks without the tactic
- Without the tactic: on average 0.14 counter-attacks per match. With the CA tactic: 1.52.
- 2 or more non-tactical counter-attacks: about 1% of matches.
- The number of defenders in the starting lineup matters a lot.
Average counter-attacks per match by number of defenders. With the CA tactic it also grows with HatStats: with 5 defenders and 400+ HatStats it reaches about 2.6.
Long shots (tactic): rate by level
Rate = LS / (normal chances + LS + non-tactical LS). The maximum is about 25–28%.
Non-tactical long shots
They depend on a "hidden" shooting ability, estimated with ISP Att: from 0.1% to 1.4% of normal chances. A missed LS can trigger a counter-attack.
Attack in the middle (AIM) and Attack on wings (AOW)
The tactic level has a weak but visible effect. Chances in the middle go from 59% to 67% with AIM; those on the wings from 73% to 82% with AOW.
Pressing
- Some events have a decreasing probability: each success lowers the probability of the next one. In practice it caps the number of events.
- LS: strong penalty, with a 59/41 split between the 1st and 2nd half. Pressing: 53/47.
- The drop in pressing is concentrated from 75': more likely due to stamina than to the ME.
- On average pressing removes about 11% of the events in a match.
How each tactic level is calculated
| Tactic | Level |
|---|---|
| Long shots | 1.66 × average scoring + 0.55 × average set pieces − 7.6 (10 outfielders). Costs −5% midfield and −2.7% attack. |
| Attack in the middle / on wings | sum of the 10 outfielders' passing / 5 − 2 (sum 60 → level 10) |
| Counter-attacks | 0.0173 × Σ[form × (2 × passing + defending) of the defenders] + 1.04. Costs 7% of midfield. |
| Play creatively | passing (weight 4) and experience (weight 1); unpredictable players count double (ch. 13) |
| Pressing | defending and stamina: it drops during the match (chart) |
Each player's main skill counts; the division does not matter. The level shown in the match report is the one at kick-off, but it is recalculated during the match. Quick players (midfield, wingers, attack) give a bonus to counter-attacks, powerful players to pressing, unpredictable players to play creatively. Calculator in the Calculators section.
Pressing loses strength during the match
Pressing level in % of the starting level: on average 97.5% in the first half, 88.6% in the second, 70.5% in extra time. Since 2021 pressing always has a minimum chance of stopping long shots.
Counter-attacks: how many you get, and the "self-regulating" conversion
Probability of getting X counter-attacks by the number of chances missed by the opponent, with tactic level 17–18 (nickarana, Live data).
| Opp. missed chances | 0 CA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 37% | 55% | 8% | ||
| 3 | 19% | 56% | 23% | 1.5% | |
| 4 | 9% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 0.2% |
| 5 | 5% | 35% | 44% | 16% | 1% |
| 6 | 2% | 24% | 43% | 27% | 4% |
- Counter-attack conversion drops after each successful counter-attack and rises after each failed one: it always drifts back to the average (about 34% for levels 15–20).
- The manual's conversion formula (10.8 × level / sum of ratings) is wrong: in the data conversion barely depends on the match ratings.
Long shots: the manual's formulas
- Goal probability: shot = 0.0643 · scoring2.38 · set pieces2.77; defence = 1977 · goalkeeping0.9 + 31.5 · keeper's set pieces2.33; goal = shot / (shot + defence). Set pieces are not affected by form and stamina.
- Share of chances turned into long shots according to the manual: 0.474 × (1 − e−0.0762 · level), i.e. 25% at level 10 and 37% at level 20.
- nickarana's data (ch. 11) give lower values at high levels: about 24% at level 20 and a maximum of 25–28%.